{"id":14495,"date":"2018-01-30T18:33:27","date_gmt":"2018-01-30T16:33:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=14495"},"modified":"2018-01-30T18:33:27","modified_gmt":"2018-01-30T16:33:27","slug":"turkish-invasion-of-syria-air-cdre-raf-retd-andrew-lambert-director-erpic-regional-security-program-26th-january-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=14495","title":{"rendered":"Turkish Invasion of Syria \u2013 Air Cdre RAF (Retd.) Andrew Lambert, Director, ERPIC Regional Security Program, 26th January 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">by erpic-manager on January 30, 2018<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Turkish Invasion of Syria-  21 January 2018\" width=\"735\" height=\"413\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/OAg8AZVm8Vc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">On Sunday 21st January 2018, armed forces of the Turkish Republic invaded Affrin Province in Northern Syria. This invasion, codenamed somewhat paradoxically as Operation Olive Branch, involved tanks, artillery, infantry and aircraft. It is a very significant event and begs a number of strategic questions for the region, for Turkey\u2019s future, and for Turkey\u2019s allies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">First, is there a proper justification for this invasion under International Law? Perhaps Turkey regards this as an act of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, but it would be difficult to argue that \u201can armed attack had actually occurred against Turkey\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">An armed attack by whom? By either the state of Syria, or by the Kurdish group, known as the YPG who, hitherto, had enjoyed Russian support and had operated solely inside Syria.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">In any case, to be justified, such action would require Turkey IMMEDIATELY to report the matter to the United Nations Security Council to allow the council to take measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><!--more--><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">In the event, it was France which summoned the UN Security Council. In a closed doors session, and with the US Permanent Representative surprisingly absent, the Security Council neither condemned nor approved Turkey\u2019s actions. This lack of authorisation left the Turkish assault in a state of international law limbo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Of course, this is not the first time that Turkey has bent International Law to suit. On many occasions over the past few decades, Turkey has carried out armed attacks into Northern Iraq, without UN approval, attacking Kurdish villages in the hunt for Kurds who supposedly were supporters of the terrorist PKK organisation. According to Ankara, the YPG are in reality an offshoot of the PKK, an expediency totally rejected by Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The second item of concern is why Turkey is acting against warnings and in direct defiance of the foreign policies of its allies, particularly its most important ally, the USA. Even Mr Putin has had his arm twisted. Russian forces supporting the Syrian Regime had deployed 300 military police to Affrin but, after lengthy discussions with Moscow, they had to be rapidly redeployed so that the Turks would have a clear line of fire against the Kurds in Affrin.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">But it is against the US that the rift is particularly stark.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">In the UN-authorised fight against ISIS\/DAESH, the Kurdish YPG were equipped and trained by the USA. Turkey watched with dismay as the YPG, and indeed the Kurdish Peshmerga, had been so successful against ISIS and how they now control about a quarter of Syrian territory, almost the whole of the north-east. The Kurds regarded the USA as their prime supporter; however, if the YPG are now to be thrown to the wolves it must surely beg the question in the minds of many Kurds, and indeed other supposed US friends, just how much can the USA be relied on when the chips are down?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Of course, Donald Trump was known to admire the ruthlessness of President Tayip Erdogan, and successive US Administrations have bolstered Turkish defences against a possible armed attack by Syria. But how pleased will Mr Trump now be, since the man he admired has bitten the hand that feeds him?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Anti-American sentiment is running high, and is exacerbated by the state-controlled media fuelling nationalist anti-Kurdish sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">On the face of it, the Turkish invasion was triggered when the US-led coalition said it was working with the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to set up a new 30,000-strong border force along Syria\u2019s northern border.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">But this infuriated President Erdogan who stated\u00a0during a speech in Ankara,\u00a0\u201cA country we call an ally is insisting on forming a terror army on our borders.\u201d He characterised US support to Syrian Kurds as undermining Turkey\u2019s security, adding, \u201cWhat can that terror army target but Turkey? Our mission is to strangle it before it\u2019s even born.\u201d And just in case this might spark reaction from Kurds inside Turkey, President Erdogan warned on Sunday that any Kurds who protested \u201cwould pay a high price\u201d. So much for basic freedoms!<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">This now begs the third question:\u00a0\u00a0 to what degree can Turkey continue to be considered a dependable NATO member? Article V of the NATO Treaty, the \u2018attack on one is an attack on all\u2019 article, is no justification for settling old scores, for ethnic cleansing or the suppression of ethnic minorities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">According to Reuters, quoting the Turkish state-run Anadolu agency, General Hulusi Akar, armed forces chief, speaking at a meeting of NATO top brass in Brussels, said that Turkey will not allow the Kurdish YPG to receive support, and said NATO should not differentiate between terrorist groups: \u201cWe cannot and will not allow support and arming of the Kurdish YPG terror group under the name of an operational partner. We hope this mistake will be corrected in the shortest time\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Even more imperiously, last Sunday, Foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu declared that anyone who opposes Turkey\u2019s operation there is siding with terrorists and will be treated accordingly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">These are hardly the words of a friend and ally; rather they echo the nationalist ultimatums, that were heard so much in the 1930s.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Internally, too, the Turkish Government is becoming increasingly imperious. In the aftermath of the so-called \u201cGulenist\u201d coup just over a year ago, as many as 160,000 were, without due process, either imprisoned or dismissed from their jobs. Recent wrangles between the Turkish Constitutional and lower Law Courts seem politically motivated, and this all points to a deterioration in the rule of law. Judicial impartiality, according to the Financial Times, has now all but disappeared. Perhaps one should also recall that in the aftermath of the attempted coup, a number of Turks on the NATO staff actively sought asylum, while many others of middle and senior rank still in Turkey, were purged.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Although NATO Press announcements from Brussels portray an aura of calm and business as usual, other NATO nations, in particular the USA, must now feel distinctly uneasy about a member that seems to operate in its own self-interest, without any agreement from its allies. Other NATO members must, it seems, simply fall into line or accept the threatened consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">One has to ask, does Turkey no longer see herself as part of an organisation working to achieve consensus, or is she now a major regional power who can dictate terms?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">If, however, NATO membership now sits awkwardly with Turkey\u2019s unilateralist ambitions, one must also raise an eyebrow at Turkey\u2019s increasing interests elsewhere. Moscow has found it hard to conceal its delight at the growing rift between NATO members.\u00a0 Turkey is already a dialogue member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a NATO look-alike in Asia. One wonders if she can, in all honesty, keep a foot in each camp, especially as she is increasingly turning her back on the West and the EU in particular.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">So, in summary, one has to be concerned about the future path Turkey will take under her maverick, and increasingly nationalist, President Recep Tayip Erdogan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">In the words of President Lincoln, \u2018A house divided against itself cannot stand\u2019, and this applies not just to NATO, but Turkey as well. With a permanently suppressed Kurdish minority amounting to some 15-20% of the population, and with frequent extra-territorial forays to attack Kurds in Northern Iraq and now Syria, it is clear that Turkey is indeed divided. This ethnic split, coupled with the growing gap between the aspirational urban middle classes on the one hand, and the rural Erdogan supporters on the other, does not bode well for the future unity of a free country.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Whether President Erdogan\u2019s neo-Ottoman, pan-Islamist \u00a0actions, adventures and ambitions herald a real shift in Asia Minor, or are just the short-term, nationalist escapades of an opportunist remains to be seen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">source:<a href=\"https:\/\/erpic.org\/portfolio-post\/invasion-director-regional\/\">https:\/\/erpic.org\/portfolio-post\/invasion-director-regional\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by erpic-manager on January 30, 2018 On Sunday 21st January 2018, armed forces of the Turkish Republic invaded Affrin Province in Northern Syria. This invasion, codenamed somewhat paradoxically as Operation &hellip; <\/p>\n<div class='heateorSssClear'><\/div><div  class='heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_horizontal_sharing' data-heateor-sss-href='https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=14495'><div class='heateor_sss_sharing_title' style=\"font-weight:bold\" ><\/div><div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_ul\"><a aria-label=\"Facebook\" class=\"heateor_sss_facebook\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.onisilos.gr%2Findex.php%3Frest_route%3D%252Fwp%252Fv2%252Fposts%252F14495\" title=\"Facebook\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:32px!important;box-shadow:none;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle\"><span class=\"heateor_sss_square_count heateor_sss_facebook_count\">&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"heateor_sss_svg\" style=\"background-color:#0765FE;width:30px;height:30px;display:inline-block;opacity:1;float:left;font-size:32px;box-shadow:none;display:inline-block;font-size:16px;padding:0 4px;vertical-align:middle;background-repeat:repeat;overflow:hidden;padding:0;cursor:pointer;box-sizing:content-box\"><svg style=\"display:block;\" focusable=\"false\" aria-hidden=\"true\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" viewBox=\"0 0 32 32\"><path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M28 16c0-6.627-5.373-12-12-12S4 9.373 4 16c0 5.628 3.875 10.35 9.101 11.647v-7.98h-2.474V16H13.1v-1.58c0-4.085 1.849-5.978 5.859-5.978.76 0 2.072.15 2.608.298v3.325c-.283-.03-.775-.045-1.386-.045-1.967 0-2.728.745-2.728 2.683V16h3.92l-.673 3.667h-3.247v8.245C23.395 27.195 28 22.135 28 16Z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><\/a><a aria-label=\"Twitter\" class=\"heateor_sss_button_twitter\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Turkish%20Invasion%20of%20Syria%20%E2%80%93%20Air%20Cdre%20RAF%20%28Retd.%29%20Andrew%20Lambert%2C%20Director%2C%20ERPIC%20Regional%20Security%20Program%2C%2026th%20January%202018&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.onisilos.gr%2Findex.php%3Frest_route%3D%252Fwp%252Fv2%252Fposts%252F14495\" title=\"Twitter\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size:32px!important;box-shadow:none;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle\"><span class=\"heateor_sss_square_count heateor_sss_twitter_count\">&nbsp;<\/span><span class=\"heateor_sss_svg heateor_sss_s__default heateor_sss_s_twitter\" style=\"background-color:#55acee;width:30px;height:30px;display:inline-block;opacity:1;float:left;font-size:32px;box-shadow:none;display:inline-block;font-size:16px;padding:0 4px;vertical-align:middle;background-repeat:repeat;overflow:hidden;padding:0;cursor:pointer;box-sizing:content-box\"><svg style=\"display:block;\" focusable=\"false\" aria-hidden=\"true\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" viewBox=\"-4 -4 39 39\"><path d=\"M28 8.557a9.913 9.913 0 0 1-2.828.775 4.93 4.93 0 0 0 2.166-2.725 9.738 9.738 0 0 1-3.13 1.194 4.92 4.92 0 0 0-3.593-1.55 4.924 4.924 0 0 0-4.794 6.049c-4.09-.21-7.72-2.17-10.15-5.15a4.942 4.942 0 0 0-.665 2.477c0 1.71.87 3.214 2.19 4.1a4.968 4.968 0 0 1-2.23-.616v.06c0 2.39 1.7 4.38 3.952 4.83-.414.115-.85.174-1.297.174-.318 0-.626-.03-.928-.086a4.935 4.935 0 0 0 4.6 3.42 9.893 9.893 0 0 1-6.114 2.107c-.398 0-.79-.023-1.175-.068a13.953 13.953 0 0 0 7.55 2.213c9.056 0 14.01-7.507 14.01-14.013 0-.213-.005-.426-.015-.637.96-.695 1.795-1.56 2.455-2.55z\" fill=\"#fff\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"heateorSssClear\"><\/div><\/div><div class='heateorSssClear'><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-9","category-1"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"by erpic-manager on January 30, 2018 https:\/\/youtu.be\/OAg8AZVm8Vc On Sunday 21st January 2018, armed forces of the Turkish Republic invaded Affrin Province in Northern Syria. 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