{"id":17142,"date":"2018-04-26T17:50:25","date_gmt":"2018-04-26T14:50:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=17142"},"modified":"2018-04-27T16:45:58","modified_gmt":"2018-04-27T13:45:58","slug":"the-role-of-east-med-gas-in-the-european-energy-security-and-the-best-cyprus-gas-monetization-option1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=17142","title":{"rendered":"The Role of East Med Gas in the European Energy Security and The Best Cyprus Gas Monetization Option[1]"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Role of East Med Gas in the European Energy Security and <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Best Cyprus Gas Monetization Option<\/a>[1]<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

26 April 2018<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

by Mr. Panayiotis Tilliros<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Abstract<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This Paper examines the strategic importance of the energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean for European Energy Security in conjunction with an analysis of the right and most appropriate gas monetization option for the Republic of Cyprus. The primacy of an LNG Plant is underlined as the best and the most rational choice for both Europe and Cyprus in the context of regional geopolitics, Middle East instability and the new Great Game of geopolitical rivalry over energy routes. It is proposed that a Cyprus-based LNG Plant for the exploitation of the Eastern Mediterraneanresources can offer Europe real and effective diversification and contribute significantly to the European Union\u2019s energy supply and transit security. At the same time, it will bestow maximal benefits on the Republic\u2019s economy in addition to imparting substantial geopolitical leverage and enabling regional cooperation as a catalyst for peace and growth among neighbouring countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/a>1.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0East Med energy resource estimates and their significance for Europe\u2019s Energy Security<\/span><\/h1>\n

The Eastern Mediterranean (East Med) energy resources constitute a credible alternative source that can help Europe diversify and reinforce its energy supply and transit security, given that indigenous gas production in Europe is on trend decline and demand on trend rise.<\/span><\/p>\n

Besides its traditional gas supply routes from Russia, Norway (indigenous production) and N. Africa, Europe seeks new gas supplies via the Southern Gas Corridor comprising the \u201cFourth Corridor\u201d in the Caspian sea (Azerbaijan and probably Turkmenistan) and the \u201cFifth Corridor\u201d in \u00a0the East Med. According to an official EU website<\/a>[2]the EU aims to import initially 10 BCM<\/a>[3]of gas per year when the new corridor opens in 2019-2020, which is predicted to rise to 80 to 100 BCM of gas per annum in the future.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Caspian gas resources will not be sufficient in diversifying European gas supply. Moreover, gas transportation via TANAP<\/a>[4], across precarious Turkish territory, where the pipeline networkhas been subject to repeated attacks causing serious outages, entails grave transit security risks. If the East Med gas was also transported via Turkey transit security would be detrimentally compromised as the Ukraine 2006 and 2009 gas transit crises have proved. Another issue is whether the EU would allow Turkey to snatch East Med gas resources and gain leverage over Russia or whether it wants this advantage for itself.<\/span><\/p>\n

LNG imports to Europe<\/a>[5]are accepted by EU as increasing energy diversification and security, lowering the heavy dependence on Russia. Towards this end, the EU targets the improvement of its energy security and competitiveness by tapping into the global LNG market. In fact, competitively-priced LNG is forecast to claim a much larger share of the European gas market. Additional gas supplies are necessary for long-term economic development especially of the less developed SE Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a>2.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Cyprus Gas Monetization: LNG Plant and Energy Sector benefits for the economy<\/span><\/h1>\n

Given the East Med energy potential, Cyprus can play a pivotal role in reinforcing the energy supply and transit security of the EU. First, as analyzed above, it would be wise for the EU to have separate routes for the Fourth and Fifth corridors. Second, pipeline dependence should be avoided. Pipelines render the exporter hostage to the importer and give intermediary states inordinate power at the expense of both. Geopolitical developments can be as fluid as gas and such long-term commitment may be regretted.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This is why an LNG<\/a>[6]Plant at Vassilikos in Cyprus would serve the best interests of both the EU and the Republic itself. Moreover, a Cyprus-based LNG Plant is the principal if not the only way of achieving targeted and specified results concerning the country\u2019s energy future. This has become even more imperative following the illegal bank bail-in\/haircut<\/a>[7]imposed by Eurogroup on 25.3.2013 that destroyed the country\u2019s economic model.<\/span><\/p>\n

The development of the energy sector around an LNG Plant and the multiplier effects from the implementation of the required infrastructure are indeed key components for the country\u2019s economic future for many reasons. A dynamic energy sector can lead to job creation across the entire industry value chain and help develop technical expertise, applied research and innovation. It can create inter-sectoral synergies and economies of scale. The fastest possible introduction of gas into the electricity transformation sector is a most important prioritybound to exert a great microeconomic and macroeconomic impact. The electricity production cost will decline substantially with evident benefits for both households and industrial users. This will exert downward pressure on inflation andrender the enterprises and the economy more competitive. In addition, the substitution of oil by gas and LNG exports will correct chronic macroeconomic imbalances like the trade and current account deficits. Moreover, if the Republic becomes an energy centre, she will gain substantial strategic advantages and geopolitical leverage, thus rendering possible a fairer solution of the Cyprus problem.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the light of the foregoing, a two-train<\/a>[8]LNG Plant is fully justifiedprovided at least 10 TCF<\/a>[9]of proven reserves become available, including the existing 4.5 TCF \/ 127 BCM reserves of Aphrodite(Block 12 in Cyprus\u2019 Exclusive Economic Zone \/ EEZ)and the reserves of Calypso recently discovered (8.2.2018) in Block 6 by ENI and Total. LNG offers maximal flexibility and Zero transit risk, while reinforcing the possibility of market selection and price negotiation. Critical and decisive exploratory drills are planned in 2018 and subsequently by the International Oil Companies (Exxon Mobil, ENI and Total) and independents<\/a>[10]operating in the EEZ of Cyprus. The probability of success according to the revised exploration model based on the game-changing discovery of the zohr carbonate reservoir is rated to be considerable. Future liquefaction capacity can be expanded according to gas field discoveries, cooperation among the companies involved, the East Med countries joining in, such as probable future producers like Lebanon and Syria and currently-producing Israel, other potential investors, and of course European and world demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a>3.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 East Med regional cooperation<\/span><\/h1>\n

The East Med gas constitutes a viable, secure and independent alternative corridor for European demand and diversification needs. In fact, the Cyprus objectives are in line with the main dimensions of EU\u2019s Energy Union strategy<\/a>[11]. Cyprus can serve as the axis and trading junction that boosts the energy partnership between the Southern European and Eastern Mediterranean countries so as to contribute to the achievement of Energy Union goals. The development of a Mediterranean gas hub with regional supplies from a Cyprus-based LNG Plant will reduce EU dependence on specific energy suppliers, routes and fuels and contribute significantly to Europe\u2019s energy requirements and energy security goals. Furthermore, the exploration and development of East Med gas reserves present an excellent opportunity for regional co-operation and contribution to regional political stability, peace and economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Article by Mr. Panayiotis Tilliros<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. (Economist, International Relations Analyst \/ Expert in Economic and Energy Issues).<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Research Associate at the Cyprus Center for European and International Affairs which is affiliated with the University of Nicosia.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. Doctoral candidate.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    University Titles<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. B.Sc. degree in Economics (Govern.), London School of Economics, UK.<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. M.Sc. degree in Comparative Government, LSE, UK.<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. Postgraduate Diploma in Economics (Distinction), UCL, UK.<\/span><\/li>\n
    4. M.Sc. degree in Monetary and Financial Economics, University of Cyprus.<\/span><\/li>\n
    5. MA degree in International Relations and European Studies with a concentration on energy security issues (oil and gas) (Summa Cum Laude), University of Nicosia.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      <\/a>[1]For a detailed analysis of this subject see the Author\u2019s Paper \/ Study \u00a0with the same title at: https:\/\/www.greekenergyforum.com\/publications\/studies\/2017\/the-role-of-east-med-gas-in-the-european-energy-security-and-the-best-cyprus-gas-monetization-option<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

      Also see the Author\u2019s Thesis entitled \u00abThe Cyprus energy system and energy security: the transformative effect of gas on the Cyprus economy and the energy system\u00bb at:\u00a0https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/32471372<\/a>and https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/316145175<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[2]https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/energy\/en\/topics\/imports-and-secure-supplies\/gas-and-oil-supply-routes<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u00a0Accessed on 19.4.2018.<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[3]Billion cubic meters.<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[4]Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline.<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[5]Natural gas represents around a quarter of the EU’s overall energy consumption. In recent years LNG has accounted for around 10% of EU gas imports, mostly coming from Qatar, Algeria and Nigeria. Both percentages are forecast to rise. Moreover, the EU’s overall LNG import capacity is significant, exceeding 40% of total current gas demand. See:<\/span><\/p>\n

      http:\/\/europa.eu\/rapid\/press-release_MEMO-16-310_en.htm<\/a>. Accessed on 19.4.2018.<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[6]LNG is natural gas (predominantly methane), condensed into a liquid state by cooling it at \u2212162 \u00b0C for ease of storage or transport. LNG takes up 600 times less volume than gas at standard atmospheric pressure, permitting transport across long distances without pipelines.<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[7]For detailed analysis of this issue see the Author\u2019s Policy Paper entitled \u00abCauses and impact of the MOUs on the economies of\u00a0 Cyprus, Greece and Portugal\u00bb at:<\/span><\/p>\n

      http:\/\/www.cceia.unic.ac.cy\/images\/policypapers\/policy%20paper_7-2015.pdf<\/a>and at:<\/span><\/p>\n

      https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/292154943<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[8]A train is the equipment needed to liquefy the gas and export it from an offshore block.<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[9]Trillion cubic feet. Conversion base: 1 TCF = 28.31684671 BCM.<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[10]Noble Energy, Delek Drilling, Avner Exploration and BG\/Shell for Block 12. Kogas in the consortium with ENI for Blocks 2, 3 and 9. Qatar Petroleum in the consortium with Exxon Mobil for Block 10.<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/a>[11]The Energy Union encompasses the goals of: 1. Securing Europe’s energy supply; 2. Ensuring fair competition in a fully integrated European energy market; 3. Protecting the environment and in particular combating climate change; and 4. Improving energy infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The Role of East Med Gas in the European Energy Security and The Best Cyprus Gas Monetization Option[1] 26 April 2018 by Mr. Panayiotis Tilliros Abstract This Paper examines the … <\/p>\n

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