{"id":24169,"date":"2019-05-16T13:49:50","date_gmt":"2019-05-16T10:49:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=24169"},"modified":"2019-05-11T13:52:23","modified_gmt":"2019-05-11T10:52:23","slug":"china-is-learning-from-russian-military-interactions-with-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=24169","title":{"rendered":"China Is Learning from Russian Military Interactions with the United States"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Chinese analysis contends that U.S. defense strategy will not only spark a great power arms race, but will have an unpredictable and negative impact on regional security in the Indo-Pacific region.<\/span><\/p>\n

by <\/b>Lyle J. Goldstein<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

An April 26, 2019, headline in the Chinese newspaper Global Times<\/i> was quite typical: \u201cThe US takes the unusual step of threatening Russia with two aircraft carriers. Russia\u2019s answer: that makes you a bigger target [\u7f8e\u7f55\u89c1\u7528\u53cc\u822a\u6bcd\u5a01\u80c1\u4fc4 \u4fc4\u56de\u5e94\uff1a\u8ba9\u4f60\u53d8\u5927\u6d3b\u9776].\u201d In the new era of Kinzhal<\/a> and Bulava<\/a>, not to mention Poseidon<\/a>, such a bellicose posture of swagger or a mentality of \u201cbring it on\u201d appears to be more and more common. Often, American strategists belittle<\/a> the Russia-China entente, pointing out that their actual linkages remain sometimes woefully inadequate. However, that perspective may underestimate the psychological value that accrues to both power, and in particular, how Beijing benefits from \u201cstrategic learning,\u201d by following Russian patterns of rivalry interaction.<\/span><\/p>\n

This analysis, however, intends to go beyond the important dynamics of the Russia-China entente, and rather aims to tackle the vital question of Beijing\u2019s overall reaction to America\u2019s defense strategy of \u201cGreat Power Competition.\u201d A fall 2018 study in the Chinese military magazine<\/a> Ordnance Knowledge<\/i> [\u5175\u5668\u77e5\u8bc6] takes up the question of \u201creacting to \u2018great power competition\u2019 [\u5e94\u5bf9 \u2018\u5927\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u2019],\u201d including a particular focus on the U.S. Navy. At the outset, this article notes that the U.S. defense strategy has explicitly identified both Russia and China as the \u201cmain opponents for competition [\u4e3b\u8981\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b],\u201d observing that Washington has concluded that the threats emanating from Beijing and Moscow now \u201cexceed that of terrorism.\u201d It concludes that the continuously rising U.S. defense budget provides a \u201cdevelopment window [\u53d1\u5c55\u673a\u9047]\u201d for the U.S. Navy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Part of this Chinese article examines the U.S. Navy response to the Russian challenge. A \u201crecent revival in Russian comprehensive power [\u6700\u8fd1\u5e74\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7efc\u5408\u56fd\u529b\u7684\u590d\u82cf] is described, including reasonably \u201csuccessful\u201d military interventions in both Ukraine and also Syria. \u201cThe Russian Navy has significantly strengthened its presence in both the Black Sea and also the Mediterranean, but the activities of Russian warships in the North Atlantic, Baltic, as well as the Arctic Ocean has obviously increased, as well,\u201d according to this Chinese analysis. It is stated that heavier U.S. Navy forces (e.g. USS Truman<\/i> aircraft carrier battle group) are tied down in the Mediterranean and unable to confront the Russian Navy in the North Atlantic. Meanwhile, the article contends that Russia\u2019s Yasen<\/i>-class nuclear attack submarine can attack any cities or targets along America\u2019s east coast. \u201cRussian Navy submarines could even adopt the German Navy\u2019s \u2018wolf-pack\u2019 tactics [\u72fc\u7fa4\u6218\u672f] from World War Two and cut the supply lines between the US and Europe.\u201d As a result, NATO is said to be \u201cweighed down by anxieties [\u5fe7\u5fc3\u4ef2\u4ef2]\u201d regarding Russian naval activities. For this reason, the U.S. Navy reestablished the Second Fleet<\/a> about a year ago, according to this Chinese analysis.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whatever one makes of the quality of the Russia-China entente, it seems quite clear that Chinese strategists are thankful that Russia has pulled away some of America\u2019s attention from the Asia-Pacific region. And what does this Chinese analysis of the U.S. emphasis on \u201cGreat Power Competition\u201d have to say about Washington\u2019s development of strategy in that part of the world, the \u201cIndo-Pacific?\u201d The article does discuss the meaning of renaming Pacific Command as \u201cIndo-Pacific Command\u201d [\u5370\u592a\u53f8\u4ee4\u90e8] as a key part of the new \u201cIndo-Pacific Strategy.\u201d According to this article, this change will help to raise the profile of India in American strategy and promote closer ties between New Delhi and Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n

In general, this Chinese analysis concludes that the Trump administration\u2019s \u201cIndo-Pacific Strategy\u201d is an \u201cextension and expansion\u201d [\u5ef6\u4f38\u4e0e\u62d3\u5c55] of President Barack Obama\u2019s \u201cAsia-Pacific Rebalance Strategy.\u201d There is a recognition that this is America\u2019s strongest command, overseeing forces that include six aircraft carriers, 200 warships and 1,100 aircraft. There is no doubt at all evident in this article whom the target of this strategy is, as the Indo-Pacific Strategy is said to call for \u201cincreases \u2026 of deployments for the purpose of dealing with China [\u589e\u52a0 \u2026 \u5175\u529b\u90e8\u7f72\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd].\u201d Here, the American strategy is also said to be aimed at \u201ccountering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.\u201d More disturbing perhaps, is the notion here that the new American strategy is viewed as intended to strengthen the cooperation of Japan, Australia and India to contribute to the defense of Taiwan. Indeed, the piece articulates a concern regarding the so-called \u201cQuad\u201d grouping encompassing Washington, Tokyo, Canberra and New Delhi. The new U.S. strategy, it is explained, seeks to \u201ccreate an \u2018Asian version of NATO\u2019 to surround China [\u6253\u9020\u5305\u56f4\u5835\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u2019\u4e9a\u6d32\u7248\u5317\u7ea6.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet, this Chinese assessment rates U.S. military forces as suffering from overstretch. U.S. Navy combat capability is evaluated here to be \u201cjust getting by [\u52c9\u5f3a\u53ca\u683c].\u201d The Seventh Fleet, moreover, is reported to be trying to accomplish too many missions while \u201cextremely undermanned [\u4eba\u529b\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u8db3].\u201d Not surprisingly, the two fatal collisions from 2017 are noted in this regard. With respect to the U.S. Marine Corps, this Chinese assessment also pulls no punches. It is asserted that counter-insurgency has resulted in a \u201cserious corrosion [\u4e25\u91cd\u4fb5\u8680]\u201d of the Marines\u2019 high-intensity warfare core competence. Moreover, there are reported to \u201cexist major gaps in the force [\u5b58\u5728\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u5175\u529b\u7f3a\u53e3],\u201d including the numbers of F-35B fighters, CH-53K helicopters and KC-130J air refueling aircraft. Nor are America\u2019s \u201cadversaries\u201d standing still, of course, and with a certain glee the Chinese author seems to point out the Russian Navy has already deployed the hypersonic Kinzhal missile \u201cthat can effectively deal with aircraft carrier battle groups.\u201d The point is also made that both Australia and India, and even Japan, have voiced concerns about America\u2019s new defense strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the end, the piece laments that U.S. strategy is \u201cunwise.\u201d Not only will the strategy spark a great power arms race, but will have an unpredictable and negative impact on the regional security situation. This Chinese analysis ends with the idea that the U.S. Navy\u2019s global strategic expansion will actually \u201caccelerate America\u2019s tendency toward decline [\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u5411\u8870\u843d].\u201d To be sure, many U.S. strategists will dismiss this Chinese article as pure propagandistic gibberish. There is perhaps a certain \u201cpuffing up\u201d aspect of the analysis. And yet many scholars in the West have also pointed out the all too apparent risks of \u201cimperial overstretch.\u201d If American forces are present everywhere, then they are, almost by definition, strong nowhere, given finite resources. The notion that renaming Pacific Command is a grand innovation that will re-establish a faltering balance in the Asia-Pacific sounds itself like so much propaganda. Indeed, it is hard to discern how US national interests have actually benefited from the new strategy of \u201cgreat power competition.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

*Lyle J. Goldstein<\/i> is Research Professor in the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the United States Naval War College in Newport, RI. In addition to Chinese, he also speaks Russian and he is also an affiliate of the new Russia Maritime Studies Institute (RMSI) at Naval War College. You can reach him at <\/i>goldstel@usnwc.edu<\/i><\/a>. The opinions in his columns are entirely his own and do not reflect the official assessments of the U.S. Navy or any other agency of the U.S. government.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

source:https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/china-learning-russian-military-interactions-united-states-56737<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Chinese analysis contends that U.S. defense strategy will not only spark a great power arms race, but will have an unpredictable and negative impact on regional security in the … <\/p>\n

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