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By <\/b>Dr. James M. Dorsey<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n July 28, 2019<\/span><\/p>\n BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,239, July 28, 2019<\/span><\/p>\n EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Middle East is barreling toward a nuclear and ballistic missile arms race. That race is being aided and abetted by a US policy that views the region through the dual prism of the need to stop an aggressive, expansionary, and destabilizing Islamic Republic that seeks to dominate it, and the view of the region as a lucrative market for the US defense and nuclear industry.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n US policy is not the only factor feeding the burgeoning nuclear and ballistic missile arms race in the Middle East. It is also being enabled by the inability or unwillingness of the other major powers \u2013 Europe, Russia, and China \u2013 to counter crippling US sanctions against Iran in ways that would ensure that Tehran maintains an interest in adhering to the 2015 international agreement that curbed its nuclear program despite last year\u2019s US withdrawal from the deal.<\/span><\/p>\n With the Middle East teetering on the brink of a military confrontation, Iran has vowed to start breaching the agreement<\/a>\u00a0next month\u00a0if the international community, and particularly Europe, fails to shield it from US sanctions.<\/span><\/p>\n Former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) deputy director general Olli Heinonen, a hardliner when it comes to Iran, asserted recently during a visit to Israel that Iran would need\u00a0six to eight months to enrich uranium<\/a>\u00a0in the quantity and quality required to produce a nuclear bomb.<\/span><\/p>\n US and Chinese willingness to lower safeguards in their nuclear dealings with Saudi Arabia further fuels Iranian doubts about the value of the nuclear agreement and potentially opens the door to a nuclear arms race.<\/span><\/p>\n US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently visited Saudi Arabia and the UAE before joining President Trump for visits to India and South Korea and talks with world leaders at a G20 summit in Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ll be talking with them about how to make sure that we are all strategically aligned, and how we can\u00a0build out a global coalition, a coalition not only throughout the Gulf states, but in Asia and in Europe<\/a>\u2026to push back against the world\u2019s largest state sponsor of terror,\u201d Pompeo said as he departed Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n Trump detailed the prism through which he approaches the Middle East in a\u00a0wide-ranging interview with NBC News<\/a>. He deflected calls for an FBI investigation into last October\u2019s murder by Saudi government agents of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom\u2019s consulate in Istanbul.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIran\u2019s killed many, many people a day. Other countries in the Middle East \u2015 this is a hostile place. This is a vicious, hostile place. If you\u2019re going to look at Saudi Arabia, look at Iran, look at other countries,\u201d Trump said, suggesting that crimes by one country provide license to others.<\/span><\/p>\n Asked whether Saudi arms buying was reason to let Saudi Arabia off the hook, Trump responded: \u201cNo, no. But I\u2019m not like a fool that says, \u2018We don\u2019t want to do business with them.\u2019 And by the way, if they don\u2019t do business with us, you know what they do? They\u2019ll do business with the Russians or with the Chinese.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Trump and other senior US officials reiterated in recent days that they would not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.<\/span><\/p>\n Europe has so far unsuccessfully sought to put in place an\u00a0effective mechanism that would allow European and potentially non-European companies that do business with Iran to circumvent US sanctions<\/a>\u00a0unscathed.<\/span><\/p>\n As the US prepared to announce new sanctions,\u00a0Russia said it would help Iran with oil exports and its banking sector<\/a>\u00a0if the European mechanism fails to get off the ground. (It offered no details.)<\/span><\/p>\n While countering the sanctions is Iran\u2019s immediate priority, Saudi moves to put in place the building blocks for a nuclear industry that could develop a military component and a ballistic missiles capability \u2013 moves that are occurring with the help of the Trump administration as well as China \u2013 are likely to increase Iranian skepticism about the nuclear accord\u2019s value.<\/span><\/p>\n Trump\u2019s argument that Russia and China would fill America\u2019s shoes if the US refused to sell arms and technology to Saudi Arabia is not without merit, even if it fails to justify a lack of safeguards in the provision of nuclear technology to the kingdom.<\/span><\/p>\n In 2017, with the US refusing to share its most advanced drone technology, China opened its first overseas defense production facility in Saudi Arabia. State-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) is manufacturing its CH-4 Caihong, or Rainbow drone, as well as associated equipment in Saudi Arabia. The CH-4 is comparable to the US armed MQ-9 Reaper drone.<\/span><\/p>\n Satellite images<\/a>\u00a0released by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and\u00a0confirmed by US intelligence<\/a>\u00a0show that Saudi Arabia has significantly escalated its ballistic missile program with the help of China.<\/span><\/p>\n The missile program runs counter to US policy, which sought for decades to ensure that Saudi Arabia had air supremacy in the region so it wouldn\u2019t seek to bypass the US to upgrade its missile capabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n The program, which started in the late 1980s with Saudi Arabia\u2019s first clandestine missile purchases from China, suggests that the kingdom, uncertain about the reliability of the US, is hedging its bets.<\/span><\/p>\n Saudi development of a ballistic missile capability significantly dims any prospect of Iran\u2019s agreeing to limit its missile program \u2013 a key demand put forward by the Trump administration.<\/span><\/p>\n In 2017, Saudi Arabia signed a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with China that included a\u00a0feasibility study for the construction of high-temperature gas-cooled (HTGR) nuclear power plants<\/a>\u00a0in the kingdom as well as cooperation in intellectual property and the development of a domestic industrial supply chain for HTGRs built in Saudi Arabia.<\/span><\/p>\n The HTGR agreement built on an accord signed in 2012 that involved maintenance and development of nuclear power plants and research reactors, as well as the provision of Chinese nuclear fuel.<\/span><\/p>\n The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) warned at the time that the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement\u00a0had \u201cnot eliminated the kingdom\u2019s desire for nuclear weapons capabilities and even nuclear weapons<\/a>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The Trump administration, eager to corner a deal for the acquisition of designs for nuclear power plants,\u00a0a contract valued at up to $80 billion<\/a>\u00a0depending on how many Saudi Arabia ultimately decides to build, has approved several nuclear technology transfers to the kingdom.<\/span><\/p>\n It has also approved licenses for six US firms to sell atomic power technology to Saudi Arabia.<\/span><\/p>\n Saudi Arabia is nearing completion of its first atomic reactor in the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology near Riyadh.<\/span><\/p>\n A signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Saudi Arabia has ignored calls by the IAEA to implement proportionate safeguards and an inspection regime that would ensure that it does not move toward development of a nuclear military capability.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cSaudi Arabia is currently subject to less intrusive monitoring by international inspectors because Riyadh concluded what is known as a small quantities protocol with the agency. The small quantities protocol was designed to simplify safeguards for states with minimal or no nuclear material, but\u00a0it is no longer adequate for Saudi Arabia\u2019s expanding nuclear program<\/a>,\u201d Kelsey Davenport, director of Non-proliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, told Middle East Eye<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n Ms. Davenport warned that \u201cgiven these factors, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned that Saudi Arabia is seeking to develop the technical capabilities that would allow Riyadh to quickly pursue nuclear weapons if the political decision were made to do so.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n \n *Dr. James M. Dorsey, a non-resident Senior Associate at the BESA Center,<\/i> is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore\u2019s Nanyang Technological University<\/i> and co-director of the University of W\u00fcrzburg\u2019s Institute for Fan Culture.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n source:https:\/\/besacenter.org\/perspectives-papers\/middle-east-arms-race\/<\/i><\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" By Dr. James M. Dorsey July 28, 2019 BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,239, July 28, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Middle East is barreling toward a nuclear and ballistic missile … <\/p>\n