{"id":26501,"date":"2019-10-23T19:41:50","date_gmt":"2019-10-23T16:41:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=26501"},"modified":"2019-10-23T19:41:50","modified_gmt":"2019-10-23T16:41:50","slug":"turkeys-pyrrhic-victory-in-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=26501","title":{"rendered":"Turkey\u2019s Pyrrhic Victory in Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"

By <\/b>Burak Bekdil*<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

October 22, 2019<\/span><\/p>\n

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,317, October 22, 2019<\/span><\/p>\n

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan is wrong to think a cross-border military operation into Syria will solve an ethnic conflict that dates back to the early nineteenth century. The recent history of violence between Turkey and the Kurds together with demographic considerations explain why a military campaign is unlikely to resolve the conflict.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Turkey\u2019s military incursion into northeastern Syria had an ostensibly happy ending on its seventh day, with all state and non-state actors in the Syrian theater appearing to be winners of some sort: US president Donald Trump claimed the ceasefire he brokered between Turkey and Syria\u2019s Kurds would save millions of lives; Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan claimed the incursion cleared a vast zone of Kurdish terrorists; Russia won control over a region evacuated by US forces; the Syrian regime advanced into areas it left to the Kurds in 2012; and the Kurds found new allies in Moscow and Damascus.<\/span><\/p>\n

None of that will bring sustainable peace to a geography perpetually in turmoil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turkey\u2019s most recent war on the Kurdish insurgency, which has lasted 35 years so far, has caused over 40,000 casualties by the most optimistic estimate. This period of violence began in 1984 when the PKK \u2013 the main Kurdish insurgency group, listed by Turkey, the US, and the EU as a terrorist organization \u2013 killed 33 unarmed Turkish soldiers in Eruh, in southeast Turkey. The PKK has killed thousands more Turkish troops since then, as well as government workers, Kurds who refuse to cooperate, and civilians. In response, the Turkish military resorted to brutal methods of suppression, particularly in the 1990s. Those methods included the torture and killing of civilian activists. By any reasonable criteria, this has been an ugly war.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ankara has claimed countless times that it is finishing off PKK terror once and for all, but it has never succeeded in doing so. President Trump likens the long-simmering conflict to a schoolyard fight \u2013 one that American prowess has temporarily halted. \u201cSometimes you have to let them fight. It\u2019s like two kids in a lot, you got to let them fight and then you pull them apart.\u201d These kids are not kidding: they will lunge at each other\u2019s throats whenever they can.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turkey wants to create a \u201csafe zone\u201d of 440 by 32 km in northern Syria by pushing the Kurds southward. As of October 20, its military claimed to be in control of a 120 by 30 km area covering the center of the target zone. The operation is unlikely to move further east toward Damascus, where the regime is based together with Russian forces, the Kurds\u2019 new patrons.<\/span><\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan claims the operation has already yielded the desired (military) results. Maybe. But he is wrong if he thinks a cross-border operation will fully solve an ethnic conflict that dates back to the early 19th century. Recent history and demographics tell us why.<\/span><\/p>\n