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by Sarah J. Feuer, Gallia Lindenstrauss<\/span><\/p>\n INSS Insight No. 1331, June 7, 2020<\/span><\/p>\n Turkey\u2019s military intervention in Libya has recently enabled a series of victories for the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), to the detriment of Khalifa Haftar and his backers in Cairo, Abu Dhabi, and Moscow. The reversal of fortune for the GNA, which over the weekend forced Haftar to propose a ceasefire, marks a major shift in the trajectory of the Libyan civil war and will likely cement Turkey\u2019s role as a key arbiter in the ultimate resolution of the conflict. Should the recent developments prove durable, Turkey will exert significant influence in the North African country, enabling Ankara to project power across the Eastern Mediterranean region and further challenge Israeli interests in the region, along with those of Israel\u2019s Egyptian, Cypriot, and Greek partners. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n In recent weeks, Turkish-backed forces in western Libya aligned with the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli recaptured several key towns and military bases formerly held by Khalifa Haftar and his self-styled Libyan National Army. The rapid succession of victories for the GNA, which over the weekend prompted Haftar to propose a ceasefire and a resumption of negotiations, marks a significant reversal in the trajectory of the Libyan civil war, whose latest round began just over a year ago (April 2019) when Haftar launched an offensive aimed at capturing the capital and extending his control over the entire country. Whether the shift proves temporary or ushers in a more permanent rebalancing of forces remains to be seen, but in the meantime the latest developments suggest that Turkey is emerging as a key arbiter in the Libyan conflict and could ultimately exert additional regional influence from the perch of the besieged North African country. To the extent Turkey\u2019s intervention elicits heavier Russian involvement in the Libyan arena \u2013 as evidenced in recent days by Russia\u2019s deployment of fighter jets to assist Haftar\u2019s forces \u2013 developments on the ground could also ultimately draw in greater American engagement. Thus, while for now Turkey has managed to turn the tide in the Libyan war, the implications of Ankara\u2019s recent successes will likely extend far beyond Tripoli\u2019s shores.<\/span><\/p>\n Turkey\u2019s ability to maintain a durable presence in Libya signals its dominance among the outside powers seeking to influence the sparsely populated but oil-rich nation since longtime dictator Muammar Ghaddafi was ousted in 2011 as part of the regional upheaval in the so-called Arab Spring. An initially promising political transition crumbled beneath the weight of tribal, geographic, and ideological divisions, and in the civil war that erupted in 2014, a loose alliance of western militias (some of which were affiliated with Islamist movements) drew support from Qatar, Sudan, and Turkey while an eastern amalgam of forces nominally under Haftar\u2019s control received assistance from Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In 2015, a UN-brokered agreement formally established the GNA as the country\u2019s sole legitimate representative, but it largely left unresolved the matter of Haftar\u2019s role, and an eastern-based government supportive of Haftar ultimately withdrew its recognition of the GNA.<\/span><\/p>\n