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By <\/b>Burak Bekdil*<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n January 21, 2021<\/span><\/p>\n BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,896, January 21, 2021<\/span><\/p>\n EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey\u2019s F-16s will be phased out in 10 to 15 years. Now that it has been kicked out of the US-led F-35 program and is facing US military sanctions, what can Ankara do to sustain aerial firepower? A Russian fighter seems the only feasible option, but even that may come too late.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n NATO\u2019s second-biggest army had a deterrent air force both during and after the Cold War. In 2020, the Turkish Air Force (TuAF) was the world\u2019s 21st\u00a0biggest<\/a>\u00a0air power. The most dramatic moment in the history of the force was on July 15, 2016, when Turkey\u2019s own jets bombed designated targets in Ankara, including the parliament building, as part of a failed putsch against President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan.<\/span><\/p>\n The coup attempt led to tens of thousands of purges<\/a>\u00a0from government offices, including thousands of military officers. The number of generals in the TuAF dropped<\/a>\u00a0from 72 before the failed coup to 44 after. The force quickly lost half its pilot pool\u2014from 1,350 to 680. Resignations and retirement petitions of TuAF pilots followed the purge, bringing the number of pilots<\/a>\u00a0to fewer than 400 and further weakening<\/a>\u00a0the command and operational capabilities of the force. The TuAF had to recruit Pakistani pilots<\/a>\u00a0to fly F-16 missions.<\/span><\/p>\n Two years after the traumatic coup attempt, most wounds had healed, and the air force looked forward to restoring its firepower with the planned acquisition of the world\u2019s most advanced fighter jet in the making: the F-35 Lightning II. Between a new command structure and the anticipated new hardware, everything was coming up roses.<\/span><\/p>\n At that time, Turkey was still a member of the US-led multinational Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) consortium, which is building the F-35. By partnering in the world\u2019s largest aircraft program, Ankara gained critical access to strategic aerospace technologies, and as the F-35 program required the supply of nearly 1,000 parts, Turkey\u2019s local aerospace industry was flourishing. Ankara committed to buy at least 100 F-35s at a cost of an estimated $16 billion. In May 2014, Turkey officially ordered<\/a>\u00a0two F-35 aircraft, not knowing it would not get them.<\/span><\/p>\n But then Erdo\u011fan went forward with his reckless Russian gambit,\u00a0and in so doing exposed Turkey to the risk of becoming a weakened air power. His love affair with the Russian-made S-400 long-range air and anti-missile defense system has jeopardized\u00a0the TuAF\u2019s future firepower.<\/span><\/p>\n Turkey\u2019s decision to acquire the S-400 system and the country\u2019s subsequent suspension, in 2019, from the JSF program will bring an additional $500-600 million burden<\/a>\u00a0to the F-35 production cycle. It will cost Turkish aerospace manufacturers nearly $10 billion over the next 10 years. But what about the potential operational costs for a country that fights asymmetrical wars both at home and abroad?<\/span><\/p>\n The TuAF operates squadrons of fourth-generation US-built F-16 Fighting Falcons and older F-4 Phantom IIs in its operations against separatist Kurdish militants in Turkey\u2019s southeast as well as in northern Iraq and Syria. Turkey first began acquiring the F-16s from the US in the late 1980s and has license-produced the iconic fighter jet, becoming one of five countries to locally produce the aircraft. Today the TuAF has a total of<\/a>\u00a0270 F-16C\/D aircraft in its inventory, all of them Block 30\/40\/50 models.<\/span><\/p>\n That\u2019s not good enough. Most of these aircraft will have to be phased out over the next 10 to 15 years, depending on their upgrades.<\/span><\/p>\n The deadline is there, and there is a new parameter in the equation. On December 14, 2020, the US announced<\/a>\u00a0that it will be imposing sanctions on Turkey via the Countering America\u2019s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for its purchase of the S-400 system. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the US will ban all export licenses and authorizations for Turkey\u2019s defense procurement agency (SSB in its Turkish acronym) while issuing asset and visa restrictions against Ismail Demir, SSB\u2019s president, and other Turkish defense industry officials. This means no more American helping hand for Turkey\u2019s existing fleet of F-16s.<\/span><\/p>\n Granted, this is not an imminent operational threat to the TuAF. Turkish Aerospace Industries can provide the F-16s with structural upgrades, Turkish Engine Industries can offer solutions for engine maintenance and repairs, and military electronics specialist Aselsan can modernize avionics when required. If necessary, F-16 parts can also be discreetly supplied by Pakistan, an ally of Turkey.<\/span><\/p>\n But this is not a long-term solution. Turkey\u2019s own program for the design, development, and production of its first indigenous fighter jet, the TF-X, is not moving ahead. It remains stuck in its preliminary design phase, with no credible engine option to power the aircraft. The TF-X looks like a dead end. Even if it is not, it could take decades for Turkish engineering to actually fly the fighter, which Ankara had hoped to fly in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n