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By <\/b>Dr. James M. Dorsey*<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n March 11, 2021<\/span><\/p>\n BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,959,\u00a0March 11, 2021<\/span><\/p>\n EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A nationalist Turkish television station with close ties to President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan has dug up a 12-year-old map that projects Turkey\u2019s sphere of influence in 2050 as stretching from southeastern Europe on the northern coast of the Mediterranean and Libya on its southern shore across North Africa, the Gulf, and the Levant into the Caucasus and Central Asia.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n Buoyed by last year\u2019s defeat of Armenia\u00a0by Azerbaijan, TGRT, a subsidiary of Ihlas Holding, a media and construction conglomerate that has won major government tenders, used the map to advance a policy that has long constituted the agenda of some of Erdo\u011fan\u2019s closest advisors.<\/span><\/p>\n The broadcasting of the map, first published in a book authored by\u00a0George Friedman<\/a>, the founder of Stratfor, an influential American corporate intelligence group, followed calls by\u00a0pan-Turkic daily Turkiye<\/i>, Ihlas\u2019s\u00a0daily newspaper (with the fourth-largest circulation in Turkey), to leverage the Azerbaijani victory to create a military alliance of Turkic states.<\/span><\/p>\n In a country that ranks second only to China as the world\u2019s foremost jailer of journalists, Ihlas Holding would not be pushing a pan-Turkic, Islam-laced Turkish regional policy without tacit government approval at the very least.<\/span><\/p>\n The media group\u2019s push reflects Turkish efforts to capitalize on the fact that Turkey\u2019s latest geopolitical triumph with Azerbaijan\u2019s Turkish-backed victory is already producing tangible results. The military victory has positioned Azerbaijan, and by extension Turkey, as an\u00a0alternative transportation route westward<\/a>\u00a0that would allow Central Asian nations to bypass corridors dominated by either Russia or Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n Turkmenistan, recognizing the changing geopolitical map, rushed in January to end a longstanding dispute with Azerbaijan and agree on the joint exploitation of Caspian Sea oil deposits. The agreement came on the heels of a deal in December for the purchase from ENI Turkmenistan of up to 40,000 tons of petroleum a month by the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR).<\/span><\/p>\n The agreement could boost the completion of a\u00a0Trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline (TPC)<\/a>\u00a0that would feed into the recently operational Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), bypass Russia and Iran, and supply Greece and Bulgaria via the former Soviet republic.<\/span><\/p>\n Last month, Azerbaijan agreed with Turkmenistan and Afghanistan to develop the Lapis Lazuli transport corridor,\u00a0which would link the war-ravaged country to Turkey. At about the same time,\u00a0Kazakhstan began exporting<\/a>\u00a0copper cathodes to Turkey via Azerbaijan in a first step intended to capitalize on the Caucasian nation\u2019s position as a transit hub.<\/span><\/p>\n Azerbaijan and Turkey\u2019s newly found advantage has rung alarm bells among Russian and Iranian analysts with close ties to their respective governments even though the TGRT broadcast may have been primarily intended to whip up nationalist fervor at home and test regional responses.<\/span><\/p>\n Russian and Iranian politicians and analysts appeared to take the broadcast in that vein. Nonetheless, they were quick to note that Friedman\u2019s projection includes Russia\u2019s soft underbelly in the northern Caucasus as well as Crimea,\u00a0while Iranians noted that the Turkish sphere of influence would border on Iran to the north, south,\u00a0and west.<\/span><\/p>\n In recent months, Turkey and Ukraine have agreed to cooperate in the development of\u00a0technologies with military applications<\/a>\u00a0related to engines, avionics, drones, anti-ship and cruise missiles, radar and surveillance systems, robotics, space, and satellites. Turkey has refused to recognize Russia\u2019s annexation of Crimea, home to the Crimean Tartars, and criticized Russian support for Ukrainian rebels.<\/span><\/p>\n