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By <\/b>Burak Bekdil<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n April 11, 2021<\/span><\/p>\n BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,992, April 11, 2021<\/span><\/p>\n EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Everything\u2019s coming up roses for Turkey\u2019s thriving drone industry, but a cash-strapped economy and technological challenges may slow further progress.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n As recently as the early 2000s, Turkey was dependent on Israeli-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, or drones) in its asymmetric warfare with Kurdish rebels fighting for autonomy or independence in parts of Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. When the country set out to design, develop, and produce its first indigenous drone, the Anka, technological snags beset the program. The 100% Turkish-made Anka ultimately boasted<\/a>\u00a0a foreign engine, a foreign automatic take-off and landing system, foreign landing gear, a foreign flight data computer, foreign radio, foreign sensors, and a foreign targeting pod\u2014even a foreign name (\u201cAnka\u201d is a Persian word). During flight tests it suffered several crash landings.<\/span><\/p>\n Yet despite that discouraging start, in slightly over a decade Turkey became the operator and exporter of fine drone systems. The credit for this success goes to vigorous private enterprise in the form of a partnership between Kale and Baykar, maker of the famous Bayraktar TB-2 armed drones.<\/span><\/p>\n In 2011, Kale-Baykar won a contract\u00a0for serial production of the Bayraktar from Turkey\u2019s defense procurement office. The second phase, involving the development and serial production of Bayraktar Block B (TB-2), commenced in January 2012. The Bayraktar TB-2 completed its first flight in April 2014. The first acceptance tests of the UAV were conducted in November 2014, and six UAVs were delivered to the Turkish Land Forces by the end of that year. A second batch of six indigenous Bayraktar TB-2 drones was handed over to the Turkish Land Forces in June 2015.<\/span><\/p>\n By 2019, the Turkish military was using 75 TB-2<\/a>\u00a0drones, mainly in its fight against Kurdish insurgents in Turkey and across Turkey\u2019s Iraqi and Syrian borders. But as early as 2017, Baykar had sold a batch of six TB-2s to Qatar, Turkey\u2019s staunchest Gulf ally. In 2019, Baykar won a contract to sell six Bayraktar TB-2 UAVs to Ukraine. The $69 million deal also involved the sale of ammunition for the armed version of the Bayraktar TB-2.<\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Anka made a lot of progress. At the end of 2020, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), maker of the Anka, won an $80 million contract<\/a>\u00a0to sell three Anka-S systems to Tunisia. The Anka-S is the satellite-controlled version of the Anka.<\/span><\/p>\n Ankara has more ambitious UAV programs, too.<\/span><\/p>\n On March 24, Turkey\u2019s Defense Industries Presidency (SSB) kicked off its drone Stand-Off-Jammer\/Remote Jammer (SOJ) project<\/a>,\u00a0which will equip Turkish UAVs with electronic warfare capabilities. The program will augment the Anka-I, the intelligence-gathering version of the drone, which can already perform signal intelligence activities and is in the National Intelligence Organization\u2019s inventory. In a parallel program, the SSB is developing Remote Electronic Support\/Electronic Attack Ability in Air Platform (HAVA SOJ) capabilities. This program<\/a>\u00a0is designed to detect, identify, and locate hostile communication systems as well as radar and air defense, providing early warning. Its design also enables the system to jam or blind hostile systems, particularly in cross-border operations.<\/span><\/p>\n In February, Akda\u015f, a small Turkish defense company, installed<\/a>\u00a0a 40mm grenade launcher on the Songar, a homemade drone developed by ASISGUARD, another Turkish company. The upgraded Songar, armed with the AK40-GL system and its 400m firing range, has passed acceptance tests.<\/span><\/p>\n Also in February, TAI unveiled<\/a>\u00a0the mock-up of the ambitious electric-powered and unmanned version of its T629 attack helicopter. The T629 helicopter program<\/a>\u00a0has been underway since 2017, and TAI began assembling the first flight model of the chopper in 2019. T629 will weigh 6 tons and be equipped with 70mm unguided missiles and L-UMTAS anti-tank missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n TAI is a state-controlled entity. It has the potential to mix progress with propaganda as it aims to impress President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, an Islamist autocrat who has grown weary of ambitious programs that never meet promised deadlines.<\/span><\/p>\n TAI pledged to fly the first Turkish indigenous fighter jet in 2023, though it recently revised the target date of the maiden flight (not the test flight) to 2025-26. \u201cThat fighter jet will not fly for tests before 2030,\u201d an insider told this author. \u201cAnd that\u2019s the most optimistic target. God knows when, if ever, that aircraft can enter the inventory.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n With or without TAI\u2019s delay or failure, Turkey has already become a premier exporter of combat-proven drones. The Turkish military has successfully used the TB-2 in its cross-border operations in Iraq and Syria. The TB-2 is widely known to have been a game changer<\/a>\u00a0in the Libyan civil war for the Turkey-backed faction, and it was a critical factor in the Nagorno-Karabakh military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in October.<\/span><\/p>\n Emre \u00c7al\u0131lkan, an analyst at the London-based IHS Markit, an international business information firm, said<\/a>\u00a0Turkish drones proved themselves admirably against Russian defense systems in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh, becoming a \u201cgame-changer (and) shifting the balance of power.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Ismail Demir, head of SSB, told<\/a>\u00a0Agence French-Presse<\/i>\u00a0that Turkish drones offer good value for money. \u201cIf a system from any other country had the same capability as ours, its [price] would be double,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, Baykar, the privately owned drone maker, is pursuing far more ambitious goals. One new program comes in line with shifting procurement dictates. Turkey has been constructing, under license from Spain\u2019s Navantia shipyards, a $1 billion landing platform dock (LHD), or an assault vessel, the TCG Anadolu, which it hopes will sail late in 2021. In addition to other features, the TCG Anadolu would be home to a fleet of F-35s with vertical take-off and landing capability. But the US-led multinational Joint Strike Fighter consortium has suspended Turkey\u2019s partnership in response to its purchase of the Russian-made long-range air and anti-missile S-400 defense system. Having been deprived of their new generation fighter jets, the Turks are now planning to transform<\/a>\u00a0the TCG Anadolu into a platform that can carry attack drones.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cTo give UAVs take-off and landing ability on aircraft carriers, their structure must be strong because they are subjected to very high G-shocks. We aim to develop a new UCAV (unmanned combat aerial vehicle) that will successfully land and take off on the Anadolu in one year,\u201d said<\/a>\u00a0Haluk Bayraktar, Baykar\u2019s CEO.<\/span><\/p>\n