\n
By Burak Bekdil<\/span><\/p>\n June 21, 2021<\/span><\/p>\n BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,077, June 21, 2021<\/span><\/p>\n EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Power fatigue per se<\/i>\u00a0does not fully explain the decline of Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan. He will have a hard time uniting a majority of Turks around the flag and the mosque in the presidential elections of 2023.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n The Turkish Islamists\u2019 first experience of long-term governance, now in its 19th\u00a0year, has turned the country into a caricature.<\/span><\/p>\n With annual inflation and interest rates nearing 20%, youth unemployment at 30%, and annual per capita income having fallen to barely $7,500, the popularity of President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan is facing an unprecedented decline. Pollsters released new data<\/a>\u00a0that for the first time\u00a0put his approval rating at below 30%. According to the research house\u00a0MetroPOLL, 46.5% of Turks say<\/a>\u00a0they would never vote for Erdo\u011fan versus 35.3% in December 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThis is not the Turkey we dreamed of,\u201d one close Erdo\u011fan aide, and a co-founder of Erdo\u011fan\u2019s Justice and Development Party (AKP), told BESA Perspectives in unexpectedly brave remarks. The spiral of mismanagement has been running at full speed, at times astonishing even Erdo\u011fan loyalists. Turks cannot decide whether to laugh or cry over several cases that hit the headlines within the span of only one month.<\/span><\/p>\n COVID relief<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n Cem Emre Ak\u0131nc\u0131, a restaurant owner in Ku\u015fadas\u0131 on the Aegean coast, applied to a special government relief program that offered cash support for small businesses affected by COVID-19. Ak\u0131nc\u0131 completed his application, containing all the documents necessary to qualify for the support. Erdo\u011fan\u2019s government received the application and made a deposit into his account of 4.63 Turkish liras, or $0.56. \u201cI hope this much money,\u201d\u00a0Ak\u0131nc\u0131 drolly commented, \u201cwill not ruin my moral compass.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Stealth alcohol ban<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n The Ankara government announced on April 29 that it would apply full lockdown rules until May 17. Then, in a move that displayed its usual Islamist reflex, it added alcoholic beverages to a list of commodities banned from sale on supermarket shelves. As analysts attempted to grasp the logic of linking alcohol consumption to COVID-19 (cigarette sales were free), the government announced a list of other commodities inexplicably placed on the ban list<\/a>\u00a0in an apparent attempt\u00a0to camouflage its Islamist motives: porcelain, cutlery, kitchenware, toys, DIY materials, stationery, home textiles, garden furniture, and car accessories.<\/span><\/p>\n Shutting down the Supreme Court<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n At the beginning of May, Erdo\u011fan\u2019s coalition partner, ultranationalist leader Devlet Bah\u00e7eli, announced his proposals for a new Constitution. \u201cThis constitutional proposal is the democratic torch of the 100 years that lies ahead, a move by our people to build and reclaim the future,\u201d Bah\u00e7eli proudly announced<\/a>. Except that one of his 100 constitutional proposals is to shut down the Supreme Court.<\/span><\/p>\n Service passports for human smuggling<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n The German authorities have undertaken an investigation<\/a>\u00a0into hundreds of Turkish nationals suspected of entering German territory on illegally obtained service passports. This \u201cgrey\u201d passport allows visa-free entry to many countries and is usually issued to national athletes or government workers who need to be abroad to carry out their duties.<\/span><\/p>\n It appears that some municipalities controlled by the AKP provided hundreds of grey passports to party loyalists or sold them to family and friends who used them to emigrate to EU countries, mainly Germany.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThink about a state,\u201d\u00a0wrote columnist Mehmet Y. Y\u0131lmaz, \u201c\u2026 whose official service passport is now a source of suspicion at immigration gates abroad.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Scientists cannot publish data<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n It is an open secret that Turkey\u2019s official statistics agency, TUIK, has long published doctored inflation figures in order to avoid stoking public discontent against the government. Economists say the country\u2019s actual inflation rates are at least twice the official numbers. As accusations of underreporting price data peaked, an independent inflation research group, ENAGroup, started publishing its own data in September.<\/span><\/p>\n In May, TUIK filed a criminal complaint<\/a>\u00a0against ENAGroup for publishing alternative data on inflation.\u00a0The government office demanded that ENAGroup be fined for \u201cpurposefully defaming\u201d the official statistics institution and \u201cmisguiding public opinion.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cFor the first time in the history of the Turkish Republic,\u201d Treasury and Finance Minister L\u00fctfi Elvan said,\u00a0\u201cthe group aims to \u2018damage and discredit the Turkish Statistical Institute\u2019 by spreading misleading data that are used by opposition parties.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Disrespecting a sultan\u2019s tomb<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n Ever since opposition figure Ekrem Imamo\u011flu won the Istanbul mayoral race in 2019, ending the Islamists\u2019 25-year rule in Turkey\u2019s biggest city, he has been the focus of ire from senior government figures, including Erdo\u011fan himself. The central government suspended\u00a0Imamo\u011flu\u2019s charity campaigns, including cheap bread sales to the poorest.<\/span><\/p>\n In the latest episode, the Interior Ministry launched an investigation<\/a>\u00a0into Imamo\u011flu for \u201cdisrespecting Sulhan Mehmet II\u2019s tomb\u201d\u2014the resting place of\u00a0the Ottoman sultan who conquered Istanbul in 1453. A probe was opened and the mayor of Istanbul was summoned to make a statement.<\/span><\/p>\n How did this offense take place? In 2020, Imamo\u011flu visited the tomb and was photographed with his hands folded behind his back.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIn my opinion,\u201d Interior Minister S\u00fcleyman Soylu said<\/a>, \u201cThis [behavior] is an offense.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n