{"id":32680,"date":"2021-10-05T20:06:55","date_gmt":"2021-10-05T17:06:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=32680"},"modified":"2021-10-05T20:06:55","modified_gmt":"2021-10-05T17:06:55","slug":"aukus-undermines-nato-brings-france-closer-to-greece-and-cyprus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/?p=32680","title":{"rendered":"AUKUS Undermines NATO, brings France closer to Greece and Cyprus"},"content":{"rendered":"

5\/10\/2021<\/span><\/p>\n

By Konstantinos Apostolou-Katsaros*<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A major geopolitical reshuffle is underway in the wake of AUKUS. Although France seemed to be the state most affected, the consequences are profound in a global scale. The United States shifted their geostrategic center of gravity to East, in order to tackle the Chinese expansionism. This made all EU eyes turn as they come to terms with the loss of primacy in the dusk of the old Eurocentric western security architecture. An interesting point of discussion refers to whether the UK was aware of this development hence decided to press on with BREXIT with the intention to participate in AUKUS free of European \u201cburdens\u201d and \u201cbackwaters\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

NATO\u2019s significance is also diminished and an emerging new alliance amongst the USA, UK, Australia, India and Japan in the Indo-Pacific is underway. In this respect NATO itself is in the eye of the storm, whereas France\u2019s\u00a0reaction is aiming to counterbalance<\/a>\u00a0the US\u2019 shift.<\/span><\/p>\n

The reflexive proposal for an EU army<\/a>is also unsettling for NATO\u2019s consistency since it is not clear how it will operate in case EU leaders have diverging opinions from that of North Atlantic Alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

An additional NATO headache is the intrinsic inhomogeneity and the conflicting interests of its members. Major players such as Germany, Spain and Italy have geopolitical and geoeconomic ties with Turkey which oppose to the newly-formed Franco-Greek strategic partnership<\/a>as analyzed presently.<\/span><\/p>\n

AUKUS in the context of NATO<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Evidently France is distressed primarily with the US regarding AUKUS \u2014 since it never trusted the UK anyway. In September 2021, France\u2019s TotalEnergies signed <\/a>a $27 billion oil, gas and solar deal in Iraq and some analysts say that AUKUS is retribution for that.<\/span><\/p>\n

This golden Franco-Iraqi agreement may have accelerated AUKUS, but it is certainly not the reason the US pushed for it. The events of Afghanistan may have forced swift action to draw public opinion away.<\/span><\/p>\n

France\u2019s squabble with the US is not a current affair and has already been expressed as unease with the American paternalistic attitude towards NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Back in November 2019, President Macron warned<\/a>that Trump\u2019s decision to act unilaterally and withdraw American troops from Syria \u2014 abandoning the Kurds \u2014 indicated that the US is less committed to upholding mutual defense agreements within the NATO alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO,\u201d he said and noted, \u201cI don\u2019t know (whether Article Five remains in effect),\u201d referring to the collective defense agreement, finally raising a doubt on \u201cwhat will Article Five mean tomorrow?\u201d In retrospect, who can criticize him after the humiliating\u00a0retreat from Afghanistan<\/a>\u00a0and the AUKUS debacle?<\/span><\/p>\n

Deteriorating Franco-Turkish relations<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, France is faced with escalating tensions with other NATO members such as Turkey.<\/span><\/p>\n

The recent verbal altercations<\/a>\u00a0between President Erdo\u011fan and President Macron are indicative of a deeper geopolitical rivalry between Paris and Ankara over Syria, Libya, former French colonies in Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.<\/span><\/p>\n

When President Macron commented on \u201cIslamist separatism\u201d in response to\u00a0the inhuman beheading of Samuel Paty<\/a>\u00a0outside a school in a Parisian suburb on October 16, 2020, he received fierce criticism by Turkish President Erdo\u011fan.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhat is the problem of this person, called Macron, with Islam and Muslims? \u2026What else can be said to a head of state who does not understand freedom of belief and who behaves in this way to millions of people living in his country who are members of a different faith?\u201d said<\/a>Erdo\u011fan during an AKP party meeting.<\/span><\/p>\n

The French presidency reacted hours later saying, \u201cExcess and rudeness are not a method\u2026 We are not accepting insults\u2026 We demand Erdo\u011fan change his policy, which is dangerous in all aspects.\u201d France then recalled<\/a>its ambassador to Turkey after Erdo\u011fan questioned Macron\u2019s mental state.<\/span><\/p>\n

On December 4, 2020 after provocative prayers at Hagia Sophia, Erdo\u011fan continued his criticism, saying<\/a>\u201cMacron is trouble for France. With Macron, France is going through a very, very dangerous period. I hope France will get rid of Macron as soon as possible.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

A year earlier \u2014 in November 2019 \u2014 Turkey also accused<\/a>President Macron of being a \u201csponsor of terrorism\u201d after France hosted an official from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).<\/span><\/p>\n

The Turkish commotion<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

As a matter of fact, Turkey is bulling France and every other NATO ally \u2014 especially Greece \u2014 that resists its neo-Ottoman hegemonic ambitions, blatantly disregarding its obligations against the North Atlantic Alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turkey\u2019s foreign policy flip-flops between the West and Eurasia<\/a>are well documented. Every time the pressure rises with its western allies, Turkey runs to Russia\u2019s hug, threatening to buy more Russian-made weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russia, on the other hand, lures Turkey in an effort to crack NATO\u2019s unity, and although this works \u2014 for the time being \u2014 in favor of Turkey, it overlooks the long-term adverse effect on Turkey\u2019s trustworthiness.<\/span><\/p>\n

It also underestimates the \u201ccoziness\u201d of the Russian bear hug that may eventually strangle its ambitions; especially if Turkey falls out of NATO\u2019s protective umbrella or if NATO loses its coherence and will to support its members under the collective defense Article Five<\/a>as President Macron clearly warned.<\/span><\/p>\n

Normalizing the tense relations between Macron and his Turkish counterpart Erdo\u011fan is not foreseeable in the near future, even though some efforts have been made.<\/span><\/p>\n

Macron\u2019s advisor Gilles Kepel said<\/a>on September 2021 that Macron-Erdo\u011fan relations are on the low, but they must pretend.<\/span><\/p>\n

A report published on May 6, 2021 by the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI<\/a>) notes that \u201cnormalization of Franco-Turkish relations is unrealistic in the short term, especially as \u2018Macron vs Erdo\u011fan\u2019 is a fight both leaders want ahead of elections in their countries.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The same report also mentioned that \u201cthe political rift between Paris and Ankara is gradually turning into a long-term geopolitical rivalry, where France acts as a \u2018keeper\u2019 and defender of European leadership, in particular in the Mediterranean, and Turkey as a rising middle power determined to challenge the current order.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Religious and cultural conflict <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

France\u2019s social issues with its own Islamic communities are an additional key matter that affects Franco-Turkish relations since Erdo\u011fan sees himself as an advocate of Islamist rights (sole protector of Islam and Muslims).<\/span><\/p>\n

The Turkish far-right nationalist group Grey Wolves\u2019<\/a>infiltration in French society is noticeable and closely monitored<\/a>by the country\u2019s secret services.<\/span><\/p>\n

The group has been accused<\/a>by the French government of \u201cextremely violent actions\u201d and creating \u201cincitement to hatred against authorities\u00a0and Armenians<\/a>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Turks manipulate their diaspora throughout Europe as a foreign policy tool and invest substantial resources both on government and nongovernmental organizations to further their agenda.<\/span><\/p>\n

The French government is aware of that and is not afraid to voice fears of possible Turkish meddling<\/a>in the national elections of 2022. After all, Erdo\u011fan back in 2017 was also accused of interfering in a German election.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is therefore safe to say that the Turks pose a threat not only in French foreign policy, but in their democracy and social stability too, bearing in mind the already tense situation with the spread of radical Islam in the country.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The African bone of contention<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Accumulating tensions between Turkey and France have also been mounting over Africa, thus inevitably portrayed in the Mediterranean as well. As Professor of Geopolitics Kostas Grivas explained<\/a>, France has a large presence and significant geopolitical interests in Africa.<\/span><\/p>\n

France\u2019s strategic depth is in Africa, incorporating more than the Francophone states. The Mediterranean connects France with Africa and it is in its best interest to maintain control of it; Greece and the Republic of Cyprus act as key states in such endeavor, as explained further on. \u201cIf France loses Africa, France is nothing\u201d counters<\/a>Nathalie Yamb, adviser to Ivory Coast\u2019s Freedom and Democracy Party (LIDER).<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the past two decades, Turkey has made major economic and diplomatic investments to gain influence on African continent. This has taken various forms; Turkey has military presence in the Horn of Africa, namely Somalia, Sudan and Ethiopia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan even adopted a populist rhetoric towards Africans emphasizing that Turkey is not interested in seizing natural resources as other \u201ccolonial powers\u201d. He specifically said<\/a>during a visit to Gabon: \u201cAfrica belongs to the Africans; we are not here for your gold.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

France-Greece alliance vs. Turkey<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

France knows too well that losing Africa would mean downscaling to a medium-sized European state overshadowed by Germany.<\/span><\/p>\n

It therefore comes as no surprise that the French are actively involved in the Eastern Mediterranean dispute between Turkey and the two Hellenic states (Greece and the Republic of Cyprus).<\/span><\/p>\n

France demonstrated unfailing support<\/a>during the crisis of 2020 when the Turks sent their seismic research vessel Oru\u00e7 Reis (accompanied by several war ships) to conduct surveys on the Greek continental shelf (as described in UNCLOS<\/a>) for 82 days(!) in total<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Openly denouncing Turkey\u2019s expansionism and its effort to \u201csteal\u201d the Greek and Cypriot continental shelf and\/or exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with the Mavi Vatan (Blue Homeland) naval doctrine, Macron stated<\/a>that \u201cFrance has been very clear. When there were unilateral acts in the eastern Mediterranean, we condemned them with words, and we acted by sending frigates.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The newly formed Franco-Greek alliance (possibly incorporating the Republic of Cyprus at a later stage) creates a solid geostrategic barrier (containment effort), necessary for Paris to prop up its role in the Mediterranean.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is in essence a crucial part of its long-term strategy to maintain its status as a great power in the multipolar international system. In this respect, France needs Hellenism and vice versa to deal with the Turkish threat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Especially since NATO under General Stoltenberg\u2019s leadership has moved from its equidistance policy between Greece and Turkey to a Turkophilic one by downplaying the unprecedented Turkish aggression instead of trying to suppress it.<\/span><\/p>\n

The France-Greece alliance is further strengthened by the diplomatic blow of AUKUS to France.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysts see a relation<\/a>between AUKUS and the US, giving the green light to Greece to sign a sizable deal with France as part of the rearmament program that modernizes the Hellenic Navy.<\/span><\/p>\n

This game changer deal<\/a>includes three Belh@rra frigates (+1 option) with an additional option of three GoWind corvettes (+3 option) on the table. Athens already ordered 18 Rafale fighter jets and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis announced plans to acquire six more.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most importantly the Franco-Greek\u00a0Defense Assistance Agreement<\/a>\u00a0signed in Paris includes Article 2, a mutual defense assistance clause in case one of the two countries is attacked on its territory, hence sending a clear message towards Turkey.<\/span><\/p>\n

The agreement also sets the framework for regular consultations between the foreign and defense ministers of the two countries, both on security and defense issues, as well as on regional and international issues, hybrid threats, maritime security, and migration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mitsotakis, after signing the agreement at Elysee Palace said: \u201cWe have a common vision of an autonomous response capability to the challenges Europe faces.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

On the same lines Macron stressed that \u201cWe have a commitment to the independence of Europe.\u201d The two leaders underlined that Sahel, Mediterranean, Middle East and Balkans are areas where joint military action could take place.<\/span><\/p>\n

Concluding remarks<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

-The EU is facing a harsh reality since the existing Eurocentric western security architecture is surpassed by the AUKUS formation.<\/span><\/p>\n

-NATO unity has also been affected by AUKUS and its members should consider expanding their unilateral defense capabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

-A pan-European army may prove to be a useful tool although is not clear how it will operate in case EU leaders have diverging opinions from NATO and the US.<\/span><\/p>\n

-France has always seen itself as a defender of European western culture, hence limiting Turkey\u2019s regional ambitions and preventing the spread of political Islam is high in its agenda. This undoubtedly affects Franco-Turkish relations irrespective of who will be the next French President.<\/span><\/p>\n

-There is indication that France may be urged to adopt a proactive role in the Mediterranean on behalf of the West. This is evident after the silent green light to sign the Franco-Greek arms and Defense Assistance Agreement. In order to increase the global credibility of France and Greece they need to deepen their diplomatic and military partnership by filling the void left by the US<\/a>in the Eastern Mediterranean before Turkey intervenes and lures other states in the region (especially Egypt).<\/span><\/p>\n

-Privileged access to shooting ranges and training facilities coupled with frequent common military exercises would facilitate the Defense Assistance Agreement by increasing the readiness and level of cooperation between French and Greek army forces.<\/span><\/p>\n

-Blockage of improper use<\/a>of Qatari Rafale aircrafts by the Turks is a vital security measure for the Franco-Greek partnership in case of escalating Turkish aggression.<\/span><\/p>\n

-Reciprocity on the part of Greece in France\u2019s interests (e.g. in Mali<\/a>and Sahel) is deemed necessary if Greece is to fully benefit from French military assistance when\/if needed (Article 18(i) of the Defense Assistance Agreement).<\/span><\/p>\n

-The Mediterranean is France\u2019s bridge to Africa, thus securing it is of prime importance to its geostrategic and geopolitical national interests, bringing it closer to the two Hellenic states.\u00a0Efforts should be made to include the Republic of Cyprus in the new France-Greece strategic partnership to contain the Turkish revisionism and the Mavi Vatan doctrine.<\/span><\/p>\n

-Professor of Economic Geography and Geopolitics Ioannis Mazis has already proposed maintaining a permanent French joint Task Force<\/a>in the Republic of Cyprus. The distance<\/span>
\nbetween the French Naval Base of Toulon and Crete (Southern Greece) is roughly 1,100 \u039dm (1.5 days sailing) while from Cyprus it is 1,400 \u039dm (2 days sailing). Hence permanent French forces in Cyprus would: a) Reduce the deployment cycle. b) Incorporate the Republic of Cyprus is in the strategic partnership. c) Counterbalance the British presence in the island. The UK will certainly oppose to it although France has a unique opportunity and the diplomatic leverage to push for it after the AUKUS. Having a strong presence in the region requires strong measures and France should consider taking on this strategic risk.<\/span><\/p>\n

-The France-Greece pact is a stepping stone and a starting point. Bilateral investment and industrial collaboration \u2014 especially in the defense industry and hydrocarbon exploitation should follow to establish strong geoeconomic ties.<\/span><\/p>\n

-The newly formed alliance is not a result of French philhellenism; instead it is based on common geostrategic interests needed to be sustained through solid long-term planning and mutual sacrifices. Remissness of either party may turn the Franco-Greek agreement to nothing more than ink on paper.<\/span><\/p>\n

*Analyst <\/strong>-Consultant. His area of interest is in Foreign Affairs and Greek-Turkish relations. <\/strong>He holds a Ph.D. and M.Sc. from the School of Environment and Technology of\u00a0Brighton University\u00a0(UK) where he worked as a Lecturer and Research Associate.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong>https:\/\/greekreporter.com\/2021\/10\/04\/aukus-undermines-nato-france-greece-cyprus\/<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

5\/10\/2021 By Konstantinos Apostolou-Katsaros* A major geopolitical reshuffle is underway in the wake of AUKUS. Although France seemed to be the state most affected, the consequences are profound in a … <\/p>\n

<\/div>
<\/div>
 <\/span><\/path><\/svg><\/span><\/a> <\/span><\/path><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/div>
<\/div><\/div>
<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32686,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[10769],"class_list":["post-32680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","tag-aukus-undermines-nato"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32680\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/32686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.onisilos.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}